Filing period is over and we have a little over a month before candidates file their first 2014 finance report. In the meantime, candidates will do their best to be fantasy candidates, which is why campaign talk is generally a thing to be ignored. Campaign finance reports will be some of the first really useful information for voters about new candidates.
Another very useful piece of information is a candidate’s consultant. In our latest consultant-measuring exercise we broke down how much on average consultants collected from GOP candidates in contested races in 2012.
| Consultant | Avg Cost | Avg CPV |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Macias | $11507 | $2.10 |
| Kevin Brannon | $20900 | $4.72 |
| Allen Blakemore | $28060 | $3.45 |
| Jordan Berry | $40776 | $5.15 |
| Reb Wayne | $45291 | $7.80 |
| Allyn & Company | $62790 | $15.21 |
| Bryan Eppstein | $152410 | $31.15 |
| Todd Smith | $171241 | $20 |
| Murphy Turner Associates | $215965 | $43.50 |
These numbers aren't surprising. We call Republicans who closely match the campaign and legislative versions of themselves ‘conservatives’, and we call Republicans with radically different campaign and legislative selves ‘establishment’. Our current GOP establishment uses conservative campaigning to gain power for their lobby agenda.
Unsurprisingly, conservative candidates don’t pay as much per vote and don’t pay as much for consultation. This is because telling the truth is both more trust-inspiring and easier to manage.
Politician-speak, what politicos sometimes laud as “campaign discipline”, is really just how liars sound. These tightly-managed words and talking points are a high wire act that lying politicians must learn, and some are definitely better than others.
Needless to say, it is a massive advantage for conservatives to be able to speak freely. This “undisciplined" kind of campaigning is how people telling the truth sound, and they consistently get a huge discount for it.
Conservative candidates and their consultants don't have to resort to antics to fool voters. For instance, setting up shadow PACs to closely mimic trusted and established conservative brands is an example of a tactic that can be both expensive and legally dangerous.
In the end, spending big on consultants isn't a sign that a candidate is a lock. Some of the highest paid consultants in Texas did poorly in 2012. http://www.agendawise.com/2012/08/general-consultant-analysis-pt-2/
*Data contained in this post was collected by searching the TEC database for expenditures beginning with filing in 2011 running till the first TEC financial filing after the GOP primary in 2012. Direct expenditures to consultants were